Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Late Developing

Haw/LT U58 -105 4x

Just got home, I like this much better than the side and it will distract me nicely while I attempt to study and later begin drinking.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

929 Bases

Tigers -161 1x
Marlins +125 1x
Reds +119 1x
Bal/TB U9 +106 1x

Passing Tampa, still debating Oak/Sea Over

Monday, September 28, 2009

Gotta Play Something, Right?

Royals +143 1x
Min/Det O9 -106 1x

I literally spent 2 minutes making these picks, couldn't help myself with Hochevar even with the Yankees sitting their studs.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

SNF

Ind/Arz U48.5 +101 3x
Colts ML +149 to win 3x

0-2

Squaks +2.5 +108 3x
Bills +6 -110 3x

NFL Week 3

Bucs +7 -110 3x
Rams +6.5 -101 3x
Jets ML -110 3x
Jags +4 +101 3x
Redskins -6.5 +102 3x
GB/Stl U43 -110 3x

Saturday, September 26, 2009

0-5

Bowling Green +16 +109 4x
Ohio +23 -110 4x
ASU +12 +104 4x
Stanford -9 EV 4x
USC -45 -105 4x

CFB Week 4 Midday

Clemson -2.5 +102 4x
Illinois +14 +104 4x
NC St +1 -102 4x

2H In Tallahasse

USF +7 2H +112 1x

CFB Week 4 Earlies

Southern Miss +14 -110 4x
South Florida +14.5 -110 4x

Friday, September 25, 2009

The Wolfpack, They Are The Strongest Force In College Football, Bar None!



Red & Black +7 +106 4x

The only chance this covers is if Blaine Gabbert swerves the Missouri football program, decks Danario Alexander and tears off his jersey to reveal a Wolfpack one as Gary Pinkel yells, "you're a dead man!"

Thursday, September 24, 2009

#CocksUp

South Carolina +4 EV 4x
South Carolina ML +175 to win 2x

Go Cocks!

924 Bases

Pirates +124 1x
As -110 2x

Nightcap
Brewers +129 1x
Jays +143 1x
LAD/Was O9.5 +109 1x

Passing Cleveland & Chicago.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

923 Bases

Nothing today because MB is down at the moment would have played

Lad/Was U, CHC/Mil U, Mets, Royals & As.

I'm hoping those go 0-5, badly.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

922 Bases

SF/Arz O8.5 +104 2x
Mets +161 1x
Marlins -115 1x
Astros +145
Bal/Tor U9.5 +119 1x

Passing Royals, Brewers & Ms

Monday, September 21, 2009

MNF Week 2 & Bases

NFL
Dolphins +3 +102 3x

MLB
Royals +157 1x
Dbacks +107 1x

Passing Oakland

Week 4 CFB Lines of Note

Record will be updated later today. Home team first, leans in bold.

South Carolina +3 Ole Miss
automatic play

Nevada +7.5 Missouri
35-0 beatdown by Notre Dame followed by an uninspired loss at Colorado St, yeah that number looks right.

Tennessee -21 Ohio

Kansas -13.5 Southern Miss

Georgia -12.5 Arizona St

Oregon +7 Cal
This line caught me off guard, doubt I play Cal but it stood out immediately.

Florida St -14 USF

NC St +1 Pittsburgh
Straight fade of my brother-in-law, who has Pitt as his "Stone Cold Lock of the Week", last week he had Boise St.

Stanford -7 Washington

Penn St -10 Iowa

Oregon St +2 Arizona
Two Pac 10 road chalk leans, such a square.

On a (rare) homer front last week let me point out that ULM opened up +26 at LSU, this week ULM opened +26.5 at Nebraska. All this implies is that LSU isn't as good as their #7 ranking (not shocking) and Nebraska is better than their #25 ranking. This is pure conjecture but I believe Nebraska will open up as a slight fav in Columbia October 8th.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

NFL Week 2

Chiefs -3 +110 3x
Texans +7 -103 3x
Lions +10 -105 3x
Eagles +1 +113 3x
NO/Phi U47 -110 3x
Jags -3 -102 3x
Chargers -2.5 -105 3x
Bears +3 -110 3x

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Forces?

Oregon St +1 EV 4x
Arkansas -1 -110 4x
Marshall +3 -110 4x
Kant State +13.5 -110 4x

Most likely.

MLB
Braves -157 1x

NCAAF Week 3 Earlies

Duke +23.5 +101 4x
Oregon -5 -106 4x
Tenny/Tebow U53 -110 4x

Friday, September 18, 2009

Friday Bases

Braves -101 1x
Giants +139 1x
Dbacks +133 1x
Det/Min O8.5 -103 1x

Friday Night In The Valley

San Joaquin Valley +8 -110 4x

Baseball plays will be up in 2 hours.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Didn't Plan On This

Miami(FL) -4 +104 4x

"You Need To Smile More"

I was told this on multiple occasions last night while watching this game, I'm sure it was a scowl in the bottom of the ninth. Of course no one I was with knew I had any action going (it's easier that way). Two rationalized totals for tonight.

NYM/Atl O8 -104 1x
TB/Bal U9.5 EV 1x

Passing CWS/Sea O & Ms.

Day Game At Wrigley

Brewers +148 1x

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

916 Bases

Rox +114 1x
Arz/SD O8 +112 1x
Tor/NYY U10.5 +105 1x

I'm not sure the last time I hit a total after my "torrid" stretch.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Initial NFL Week 2 Leans

NFL Week 1 3-6 -7.424x

Nice to see I'm picking up where I left off when it comes to the National Football League. Home team listed first, leans in bold


Chiefs -3 Raiders

I think I can manage to sit this one out


Titans -6.5 Texans

Houston was less than stellar in week one. Tennessee played Pittsburgh tough to kickoff NFL action. Line opened at 7 and dropped to 6.5, good sign.


Jets -3.5 Patriots

Line opened at NE -6.5 and has plummeted 3 points, any value that existed when the line was first released is gone, pass.


Packers -9 Bengals

Green Bay is fresh off a thrilling win over Chicago on Sunday night, while the replay of Cincinnati’s loss has been shown repeatedly. Lean Bungles.


Lions +9.5 Vikings

No need for an explanation.


Eagles -1 Saints

The smallest of leans to Philly on this game.


Falcons -6 Panthers

Like Carolina in this matchup, of course after Delhomme throws his third pick in the 2nd quarter I’ll be wishing I passed.


Redskins -9.5 Rams

St. Louis was shellacked 28-0 by Seattle. Washington should be able to do likewise.


Jaguars -3 Cardinals

I want to play Jacksonville in this matchup, badly. Never a good sign.


49ers -1.5 Seahawks

San Fran scored an impressive (not so much) win over last year’s Super Bowl runner-up while Seattle dominated the hapless Rams. Pass.


Bills -5 Bucs

Not interested.


Broncos -3 Browns

See above


Chargers -3.5 Ravens

Oakland was whipping San Diego up front prior to losing two offensive lineman. An uneasy lean to San Diego.


Bears +3 Steelers

Lean to Chicago, I guess.


Cowboys -3 Giants

I’ll gladly pass, I don’t care what the consensus numbers say.


Dolphins +3 Colts

Lean Miami though this line doesn’t particularly excite me.

Nonsense

All for 1x
NYM/Atl O8 +103
Rockies -135
Royals +155
Jays -120
Os +132
Sawx (!) +111
As +167

Passing
Marlins, Pirates, KC/Det O and Oak/Tex U

Monday, September 14, 2009

2H In Foxboro

Bills +9.5 2H -106 1x

Monday Night

Bills +13 -102 3x

Hou/Cin O7.5 +105 1x
Marlins +103 1x
As +206 1x

Possibly Oakland later, depends how much I want to lose tonight.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Week 3 CFB LoN

Week 2 4-4 -1.18x
YTD 9-6 +11.399x

A 3-1 nightcap saved my ass from what could have been a horrific week two, but I came out of it more or less unscathed. Who knows what I would have placed for the 11am games if I had not blacked out the night before.

*Note to self: When I'm determined to get hammered, it would behoove me eat more than a pop tart and a 6" sub sandwich.

Oh yeah, fuck Jim Harbaugh.

Home team first, leans in bold
Fresno +7.5 Boise St
Michigan -22 Eastern Michigan
Syracuse +4 Northwestern
Clemson -7 Boston College
Western Michigan -17 Miami(OH)
Akron -4 Indiana
Oregon -4 Utah
Washington +21 USC
Baylor -10 Uconn
BYU -7 Florida St
Arkansas
pk Georgia
Oregon St -1.5 Cincinnati

No lean in this one, but I found the line interesting.
SMU -7 AT Washington State

This must be the same Wazzu squad from last year for SMU to be a TD fav on the road.

One More

49ers +6.5 -110 3x

2H In The Cleve

Browns +4 2H -103 1x

Degenerate Juices Are Flowing

All for 1x
Braves +163
As +149
Sea/Tex O9.5 +120

NFL Week 1

Browns +3.5 +112 3x
Lions +14 +103 3x
Chiefs +13.5 -110 3x
Bucs +6 -110 3x

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Nightcap

Sweatervests +7 +102 4x
Dick Tomey +13.5 +103 4x
Mario Christobal +35 -110 4x
Mike Price +13.5 -101 4x

Feeling Slightly Better

Keenum +17 -110 4x
Ruston +7.5 -108 4x
Surfing Pelicans -109 +18.5 4x

These games will change that in a hurry.

Should Have Stayed In Bed

Arkansas State +25 -110 4x

Friday, September 11, 2009

911 Bases

Atl/Stl O8 +113 1x
Mil/Arz O9 -122 1x

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Thursday Diamonds

Royals +164 1x

Night play
Nats +178 1x

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

090909

Padres +168
Nats +191
Rox -165
Dbacks -121
Atl/Hou O7.5 +105
Bal/Bos U10.5 +111

Nothing To See Here

Fausto +132 1x
Stl/Mil O8.5 -107 1x

Except two losers

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Hopefully, Today Goes Better

All for 1x, Indians came close to 2x
Indians +123
Royals +153
Nats +136
Mets EV
Oak/CWS O9.5 +101
Sea/LAA O7.5 +112

Monday, September 7, 2009

MLB Labor Day

Pirates +132 1x
Dbacks EV 1x
Indians +128 1x

It's too bad that JA got scratched.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Week 2 CFB Lines of Note

Week 1 5-2 +12.576%

Week 1 went about as well as I could have imagined, keeping plays fairly tight. The one problem I do have is having to watch the "Pelican" for the second straight week. I can't fathom a situation where I won't be on the Surfing Pelicans. Last year Virginia, Miami(OH), New Sexico and WKU would have been automatic, but just because a team sucks doesn't mean I need to get in a rush to back them. I've got the whole year ahead of me. Also, there will most likely be plays I have on Saturday that are not on my initial list but there should be a better reason than a low percentage of backers on a few consensus sites.

Lines for week 2 are out here. Home team listed first, leans in bold
Ga Tech -4.5 Clemson
WV -6.5 ECU
Penn St -28 Syracuse
Tulane +18 BYU
Navy -7.5 La Tech
Virginia +11.5 TCU
UTEP +11 Kansas
OK St -15 Houston
Boise St -36 Miami(OH)
tOSU +5 USC
New Mexico +17.5 Tulsa
SJSU +13.5 Utah
Nebraska -23.5 Arky St
WKU
+24 USF

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Middling

Washington +18 +101 4x
UTEP -7 -110 4x
Buffalo +10.5 EV 4x

I like the numbers in the Buffalo/UTEP game with my local not budging his UTEP line.

Saturday Day Plays

Os +130 1x

Akron +29.5 -104 4x

Friday, September 4, 2009

Greatness Will Be Rushed Tonight

All for 1x
Os +123
Tex/Bal O9.5 +115
Tigers +112
Royals +174
Nats +114
Astros +122
Phi/Hou O7.5 +101

Tulame +14 -101 4x

Thursday, September 3, 2009

2H Play In Muncie

North Texas +7 2H -110 1x

College Football Introduction



I've watched this video close to 30 times since the end of last season. Besides striving to be a degenerate my other life goal is to join the BDU.

Standard college football plays (sides and totals) will be 4x (or 4%), while games I dub to have more importance will be 6x (or 6%). Last year I went 17-7 on bigger plays, which is something I wasn't even aware of until 5 minutes ago. All plays listed will be standard plays unless I note otherwise.

Most plays listed at -110 are placed through a local when his line is better than what I can get online (determined by this useful tool). Last year in college football I went 34-42-1 through my local. Bets placed online were 81-61-1. This is fascinating because "Bruf" rarely makes line changes, so I only go through him when money comes in on the anti-public side and either lowers the line for a dog or raises it up for a fav. I don't believe any significant conclusions can be drawn from this data over the course of one year. This might be a statistical blip, but it is a development I'll be monitoring.

2 standards for tonight
Utah St. +22 -110
North Texas +17.5 -110

I'm not going to lie, North Texas should be a pass but I can't help myself.

Good luck on the 09-10 season.

One For The Bases

SF/Phi O8 +112 1x

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Lazy Wednesday

All for 1x
Royals +149
Ms -122
Giants +199
Dbacks +158

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

I Should Stop While I'm Ahead

All for 1x
Jays gm 1 +136
Jays gm 2 +159
Red Sox -150
Indians +185