Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Bowl Guess Results

Am19PSU was off an average of 3.38, I was off 2.20.

Am19PSU: Remarkably, we both did a good job (except the small conference garbage that I screw up every week).

So, um, a middle of the pack Big East team is only a point and a half better than a middle of the pack C-USA team. That was somewhat surprising, at least to me.

Sham: UCF actually opened up as a one point fav for one minute, notGeorgeOleary won't like those expectations. Another game where we were both off was CMU vs Troy. Seems rather short but I still don't know if I'll get involved.

A: It probably depends on what else is going on that night. The Chips will almost certainly be public (LeFevour!), but there may not be enough to action to get involved.

I think Nebraska got bit by the variance bug a little bit this year, but Arizona isn't a bad football team. I'll happily back the Huskers, though, if it comes to it.

S: I'm not sure what public perception of Nebraska will be heading into that game, their defense is as dominate (resisted Suh pun) as the offense is inept, right now. Throughout the year Nebraska's lines reflected that they were better than their perceived value. Surprised a little by PSU opening up at -2.5 against LSU?

A: Very. I don't know how Penn State is going to compete with all of that SEC Speed. I'm just glad Ole Miss lost the Egg Bowl so we wouldn't have to face the double whammy of an SEC Pro Style Quarterback. I think LSU is going to be a public dog in that game.

I shouldn't be doing this because I've been on the TCU bandwagon all along, but I really undervalued the MWC teams after they got beaten senseless by the Frogs.

S: I hope LSU is a public bitch in that game, like you said they have all that S-E-C Speed. Another Big 11 team I can envision being on is Wisky, who's currently trading at +3 against Miami whom we've both faded throughout the year. F$U rolling up Wisconsin last year should be cited as a major reason to take the Canes.

A: I feel like I wasn't involved with Wisconsin at all this year. Were we fading them when NW upset them? There is absolutely nothing distinct about that team, which I imagine is just the way Barry Alvarez likes it.

I think we're to the point that any Big Ten team is going to be an option against any other BCS conference. Thanks solely to tOSU, the national reputation of the conference is at all time low. Quick fact: over the last 5 years the Big Ten is 6-4 against the SEC in the Citrus and Outback Bowls. I had no idea until I looked it up the other day. So, uh, go Buckeyes, I guess.

S: I think the only time I faded Wisky was when they faced tOSU which is probably my luckiest cover of the year. Every Big 10/11 squad is an option at this point except for Minny. I know this sounds odd but I've got Florida and USC as leans right now.

A: Florida moreso than USC for me. I don't think the general public realizes that Cincy is probably only a Top 15 team that had variance on its side this year and will just see the big zero in the loss column next to the 11 points. While I think USC is probably underrated by the public at the moment, I can't imagine them lining up to back a quarterback who had his ass kicked by my brother in high school.

Worst Bowl Matchup for Contrarians: Cotton Bowl. Could they have pitted two more overrated teams in that game?

S: No, especially with both teams laying an egg in their previous games. I don't see any possible reason to get involved. I'm interested to see how the Hawaii Bowl will shake out. Nevada has been putting up points in conference and covered against Boise. SMU is a team that can attack Nevada's stellar secondary.

A: When that line came out, I figured we'd been setting up for a Christmas Eve full of Meth (that really isn't that much of a stretch in Nebraska, is it?), which makes the early 5Dimes numbers a little surprising. June Jones has done a decent job in Year 2 down in Dallas. Definite lean to the Mustangs.

Do you think we'll get one last shot at backing Temple, if Navy wins this weekend? I might play them on principle.

S: There's definitely meth related activites in Nebraska but it doesn't come close to Mizzurah, we prefer alcohol-related offenses in my state.

I'm not so sure about Temple vs UCLA, especially if UCLA is laying over a TD. Do you think the public will overplay F$U in Bowden's last game?

A: I doubt it. I mean, I can see the logic a square would come to, but there is also the thing about Free Shoes sucking.

Let's wrap this up: biggest play of the season for you?

S: Tough to say right now, there's not as many WTF? lines as it relates to previous years but I already like Texas. Yourself?

A: I've been slurping them all season, so I might as well continue. I think the Huskers are shaping up to be a 5x play for me. I don't see any 8x plays this year, which is wholly disappointing. I guess that's what happens when everybody sucks.