Tuesday, December 29, 2009

I Am Such A Fucking Moron

For not taking advantage of my local's line disparities throughout the year. I was scarred from week 7 in the NFL, where I was absolutely rolled up and lost the largest amount of my bankroll ever, surpassing Week 2 of the '08 college football season. Good fucking times. I told a gambling buddy of mine that if I ever have 9 NFL plays in one week that I should be kicked in the balls repeatedly.

For the handful of you who check this blog on a semi-regular basis it should be apparent: First off, if I'm posting at this hour I've been drinking which provides for self-reflection. Second, I have severely reduced the amount of my NFL plays because I absolutely suck at the NFL. It hasn't all been posted on this blog but the past four years I've had losing years in the NFL. I think that quantifies as a significant sample size. I should have been exploiting my local's lines in the NFL instead of tucking my dick between my legs and playing lines which I believed were anti-public.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Las Vegas Bowl

Open: BYU -1.5
Current: Oregon St -2.5*
Line Movement: Surprisingly, BYU opened up as a favorite in this one before the line shifted to 2.5. Recently the line has shifted to Oregon St -2.5 -117 at Pinny with other books opting to push the line up to 3. Of course this happened after I locked in BYU at +3. I had concerns similar to ML but those have been placated by increasingly skewed consensus numbers. While that isn't the be all end all it was enough for me to unsheathe my first college football bowl play of the season.

Friday, December 18, 2009

12/19-20 Bowl Roundup

New Mexico Bowl
Open: Fresno -10
Current: Fresno -10.5
Line Movement: Crawled up to 12.5 on Sunday but since it has settled at 10.5

Slight lean to Wyoming but I don't foresee making them a play. To back an exceptional squad like Wyoming I need to see action a little more one-sided.

St. Petersburg Bowl
Open: UCF -1
Current: Rutgers -2.5
Line Movement: UCF opened as a slight fav in a semi-home environment for one minute (literally, click on BM) then Rutgers went up to -2.5, spent a few hours at -3 and are now back down to -2.5

Not a fan of the line movement in general. Rutgers hasn't looked like world-beaters lately but if it can hang around 2.5 it'll get a look.

New Orleans Bowl
Open: USM -3
Current: USM -3.5
Line Movement: Moved up to 3.5 quickly and that's where it has been since last Tuesday.

The fact that Mid Ten St finished up the year 6-0 SU & ATS, facing a team with an ugly 7-5 record doesn't get me too excited about backing the Blue Raiders. Pass.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Don't Let Your Comfort Get The Best Of You



I hope those days are behind me. This coming week, I should have more free time to actually post content and finally update my record as I finish school. I'll try to have a few words on the bowl games coming up over the weekend in the afternoon.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Spinoza Said It Best

If men were able to exercise complete control over all their circumstances, or if continuous good fortune were always their lot, they would never be prey to superstition. But since they are often reduced to such straits as to be without any resources, and their immoderate greed for fortune's fickle favours often makes then the wretched victims of alternating hopes and fears, the result is that, for the most part, their credulity knows no bounds. In critical times they are swayed this way or that by the slightest impulse, especially so when they are wavering between the emotions of hope and fear; yet at other times they are overconfident, boastful and arrogant.

No one can be unaware of these truths, even though I believe that men generally know not their own selves. For no one can have lived in this world without realising that, when fortune smiles at them, the majority of men, even in quite unversed in affairs, are so abounding in wisdom that any advice offered to them is regarded as an affront, whereas in adversity they know not where to turn, begging for advice from any quarter; and then there is no counsel so foolish, absurd or vain which they will not follow. Again, even the most trivial of causes are enough to raise their hopes or dash them to the ground. For if, while possessed by fear, they see something happen that calls to mind something good or bad in the past, they believe that this portends a happy or unhappy issue, and this they therefore call a lucky or unlucky omen, even though it may fail them a hundred times.

Spinoza, Baruch. Theological-Political Treatise

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Bowl Guess Results

Am19PSU was off an average of 3.38, I was off 2.20.

Am19PSU: Remarkably, we both did a good job (except the small conference garbage that I screw up every week).

So, um, a middle of the pack Big East team is only a point and a half better than a middle of the pack C-USA team. That was somewhat surprising, at least to me.

Sham: UCF actually opened up as a one point fav for one minute, notGeorgeOleary won't like those expectations. Another game where we were both off was CMU vs Troy. Seems rather short but I still don't know if I'll get involved.

A: It probably depends on what else is going on that night. The Chips will almost certainly be public (LeFevour!), but there may not be enough to action to get involved.

I think Nebraska got bit by the variance bug a little bit this year, but Arizona isn't a bad football team. I'll happily back the Huskers, though, if it comes to it.

S: I'm not sure what public perception of Nebraska will be heading into that game, their defense is as dominate (resisted Suh pun) as the offense is inept, right now. Throughout the year Nebraska's lines reflected that they were better than their perceived value. Surprised a little by PSU opening up at -2.5 against LSU?

A: Very. I don't know how Penn State is going to compete with all of that SEC Speed. I'm just glad Ole Miss lost the Egg Bowl so we wouldn't have to face the double whammy of an SEC Pro Style Quarterback. I think LSU is going to be a public dog in that game.

I shouldn't be doing this because I've been on the TCU bandwagon all along, but I really undervalued the MWC teams after they got beaten senseless by the Frogs.

S: I hope LSU is a public bitch in that game, like you said they have all that S-E-C Speed. Another Big 11 team I can envision being on is Wisky, who's currently trading at +3 against Miami whom we've both faded throughout the year. F$U rolling up Wisconsin last year should be cited as a major reason to take the Canes.

A: I feel like I wasn't involved with Wisconsin at all this year. Were we fading them when NW upset them? There is absolutely nothing distinct about that team, which I imagine is just the way Barry Alvarez likes it.

I think we're to the point that any Big Ten team is going to be an option against any other BCS conference. Thanks solely to tOSU, the national reputation of the conference is at all time low. Quick fact: over the last 5 years the Big Ten is 6-4 against the SEC in the Citrus and Outback Bowls. I had no idea until I looked it up the other day. So, uh, go Buckeyes, I guess.

S: I think the only time I faded Wisky was when they faced tOSU which is probably my luckiest cover of the year. Every Big 10/11 squad is an option at this point except for Minny. I know this sounds odd but I've got Florida and USC as leans right now.

A: Florida moreso than USC for me. I don't think the general public realizes that Cincy is probably only a Top 15 team that had variance on its side this year and will just see the big zero in the loss column next to the 11 points. While I think USC is probably underrated by the public at the moment, I can't imagine them lining up to back a quarterback who had his ass kicked by my brother in high school.

Worst Bowl Matchup for Contrarians: Cotton Bowl. Could they have pitted two more overrated teams in that game?

S: No, especially with both teams laying an egg in their previous games. I don't see any possible reason to get involved. I'm interested to see how the Hawaii Bowl will shake out. Nevada has been putting up points in conference and covered against Boise. SMU is a team that can attack Nevada's stellar secondary.

A: When that line came out, I figured we'd been setting up for a Christmas Eve full of Meth (that really isn't that much of a stretch in Nebraska, is it?), which makes the early 5Dimes numbers a little surprising. June Jones has done a decent job in Year 2 down in Dallas. Definite lean to the Mustangs.

Do you think we'll get one last shot at backing Temple, if Navy wins this weekend? I might play them on principle.

S: There's definitely meth related activites in Nebraska but it doesn't come close to Mizzurah, we prefer alcohol-related offenses in my state.

I'm not so sure about Temple vs UCLA, especially if UCLA is laying over a TD. Do you think the public will overplay F$U in Bowden's last game?

A: I doubt it. I mean, I can see the logic a square would come to, but there is also the thing about Free Shoes sucking.

Let's wrap this up: biggest play of the season for you?

S: Tough to say right now, there's not as many WTF? lines as it relates to previous years but I already like Texas. Yourself?

A: I've been slurping them all season, so I might as well continue. I think the Huskers are shaping up to be a 5x play for me. I don't see any 8x plays this year, which is wholly disappointing. I guess that's what happens when everybody sucks.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Bowl Guesses

Discussion to come when lines are released.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Week 14 Line Guess Results

3.41 for Frank, 2.18 for myself. No back and forth this week due to my schedule so I'll briefly list my leans in no particular order.

ECU
Rutgers
Pitt
Florida
Clemson
Tex/Neb U
Fla/Bama U
Hou/ECU U
NMSU/Boise U