CFB Leans Week 12

I'm a little wary heading into college foots this week. I've been doing too good* lately, the other shoe has to drop. Home team is listed first and my lean is in bold. Onto my attempts to justify plays.

Iowa -17.5 Purdue
Not sure if I'll play this, as the line has shifted a full three points in favor of the Hawkeyes and I might have missed my chance. I find it interesting how Vegas didn't set a line to attract Iowa action coming off their biggest win in years, but instead wants you to take the Boilermakers and their All-American kicker. Even after setting that line it moves another three points, which will only attract more Purdue action.**

Clemson -10.5 Duke
Here's to someone knowing why Clemson is a double-digit fav.

Illinois +9.5 Ohio St
Ohio St is coming off a waxing of NW*** while Illinois lost to Western Michigan. Sometimes the play is just that sickening.

Kansas +13.5 Texas
I find it comforting that as hard as Texas is getting pounded the line has only gone up .5 point and hasn't yet reached 14.

Auburn +10 Georgia
Auburn has 2 FBS wins in the past 2 months. Those came over Mississippi St 3-2 and Tennessee 14-12. Add in a 1-8 ATS for Auburn who only covered in the first week of the season and it's rather gross. How doesn't Georgia's high-powered offense cover this. Auburn has only averaged 10 ppg in conference. That means all Georgia has to do is get to 21, right?

LT -14 Utah St
It's amazing how bettors won't touch a team one week (see SJSU -8 against LT) and are all over them the next week.

Kant St +6 Nebraska
Trying to avoid this game as much as possible. Will Grimace be smart enough to attack Nebraska's thin linebacking corps? Maybe, but even when Nebraska sucked last year they beat K-St by 42. Surely an improved Nebraska team can win by 7. As a student and a fan, I'm a little worried about this game.

Florida -22.5 South Carolina
This line might be jacked up a little, it doesn't feel right to back a team that people are calling the best in the country. I'm sure South Carolina and their "#3 ranked defense" (thank you ESPN for bringing this to everyone's attention) should be able to slow down Florida a little. But Florida actually has the better defense and who is the best team South Carolina played on the road this year(Mississippi? Kentucky?). Not exactly hostile environments.

Baylor -8 Texas A&M
When was the last time Baylor was more than a TD fav? The betting public seems to be as perplexed as I am about this.

Oregon -6 Arizona
Line was steamed 2.5 points in favor of the Ducks. Someone must like one of these overrated teams better than the other.

Syracuse +10 Uconn
Not much here just a pub fade play

Colorado +18 Oklahoma St
I'm sick at the thought of playing this game. Maybe Colorado won't play like complete garbage for once.

UTEP -13 SMU
After a few mid-season covers Meth was becoming a little too popular for my tastes. After a couple of sterling performances where they let bettors down they're due for another shot. There is nothing better than a horrible team covering for a couple weeks, drawing in your average bettor only to disappoint. Which in turn brings them back down for a play. UTEP is also in the same boat as LT stated above.

Washington +7 UCLA
I loathe Washington more than any other college team

Also considering UAB, SDSU, BC and any others I feel like.

*In college football, certainly not anything else
** I might have just convinced myself to back Iowa
*** We know the books don't hold the Wildcats in high regard