Midwest Region Breakdown

VW's instant bracket reactions, Frank's log 5, VW's championship odds and ML's Midwest thoughts

#1 Louisville vs winner of #16(s) Alabama St/Morehead St.
The only sliver of value I see is if Morehead St. can advance past the opening round game and get a rematch with Louisville. In late November, Louisville closed as 29.5 favorites over Morehead St., a game where they dominated the second half en route to a 38-point victory The spread for a potential rematch would be substantially lower (KP has 19.4) than the original meeting in Freedom Hall.

#8 Ohio St vs #9 Siena
Opening Line: tOSU -3.5
Current Line: tOSU -3.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: tOSU 75-72
In my previous comments I was particularly surprised that Siena nabbed a 9 seed. Their best wins on the year were twice over Niagara at home, a BracketBusters home win over Nothern Iowa and a one-point road win over St. Joe's. Siena has credibility due to their drubbing against an overrated Vanderbilt team. The Buckeyes made a run to the finals in the Big 11, including a Jon Diebler 3 as time expired to give them the cover. I've been fading tOSU throughout the year, but I could see Siena being a public dog with last year's performance.

#5 Utah vs #12 Arizona
Opening Line: pk
Current Linen: Arizona -1
Pomeroy Projected Score: Utah 70-68
Arizona sneaked into the tournament as one of the last at-large teams and will be facing the MWC Champs Utah. I thought Utah would open as a short favorite and that was not the case. Usually I would be all over a #12 laying to a #5, but not when it's a)a public team in Arizona who b) ranks #132 in adjusted defensive-efficiency and c) has two wins on the road against those titans of hoops from Oregon. In regards to Utah, they're a far better team at home. According to these guys Utah has the fifth largest differential when it comes to home/road splits. That doesn't bode well for the Runnin' Utes, except for the fact that Arizona has the fourth largest home/road differential. Smells like a pass.

#4 Wake Forest vs #13 Cleveland St.
Opening Line: Wake -8
Current Line: Wake -8
Pomeroy Projected Score: Wake 72-66
Wake has been fade material since their big wins over UNC and Duke. There's nothing sexy about Cleveland St. sans their 60-foot buzzer beater road win over Syracuse. They're more than content to play a Big11-style grinder. There's not much thought that needs to go into this play.

#6 West Virginia vs #11 Dayton
Opening Line: WV -10
Current Line: WV -8.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: WV 68-57
The "contrarian community" is thrilled with this game, but the sudden 1.5 point movement is cause for concern.

#3 Kansas vs #14 North Dakota St.
Opening Line: Kansas -11.5
Current Line: Kansas -10
Pomeroy Projected Score: Kansas 80-71
Potential Cinderella NDSU got hammered out of the gate as the line dropped 1.5 points. I'm sure everyone knows about Ben Woodside, no need to state what everyone will hear several times this week. He's clearly the leader, but they have complimentary players that all work well. Their top four players in minutes played all shoot better than 39% from 3s, their offense is outstanding for a mid-major. Their defense is less than stellar. To have any chance they'll need to keep Sherron Collins in check and hope he continues his poor shooting. Big lean towards the Bison.

#7 BC vs #10 USC
Opening Line: USC -3.5
Current Line: USC -2
Pomeroy Projected Score: USC 70-66
USC is coming off their Pac 10 tournament championship to secure an automatic bid, so they're no longer a secret. I don't think that will matter much because BC has beaten UNC and Duke this year. Plus ACC >>> Pac 10. Strong lean towards the Trojans.

#2 Michigan St. vs #15 Robert Morris
Opening Line: Michigan St. -17.5
Current Line: Michigan St. -17
Pomeroy Projected Score: Michigan St. 74-60
I'll be fading Michigan St in due time. I'm not sure if this will be the time though. On a sidenote, go Jeremy Chappell!.