Tuesday, March 17, 2009

South Region Breakdown

#1 North Carolina vs #16 Radford
Opening Line: UNC -27.5
Current Line: UNC -26
Pomeroy Projected Score: UNC 98-70
I don't see any reason for me to touch this game.

#8 LSU vs #9 Butler
Opening Line: LSU -3
Current Line: LSU -2.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Butler 66-65
LSU is a tad overrated. Butler has been fade material for the entire Horizon conference schedule. Gun to my head I'd lean LSU, but luckily I'm not in Mexico so I don't have to worry about such scenarios. I'll gladly pass this one.

#5 Illinoios vs #12 Western Kentucky
Opening Line: Illinois -6
Current Line: Illinois -5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Illinois 67-58
If my fantasy tournament draft is any indication, where 4 WKU players were drafted (3 of which were drafted before any Wisconsin player) they're public. It's a combination of last year's run and beating Louisville this year. Illinois is without Chester Frazier and isn't entirely attractive (slow tempo, no recognizable names and the #4 defense will do that). I've been fading WKU all year, I don't see any reason to stop now.

#4 Gonzaga vs #13 Akron
Opening Line: Gonzaga -13
Current Line: Gonzaga -12.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Gonzaga 74-61
Akron came out the MAC this year which putting it nicely, had a down year as a conference. They're about as sexy as Digger Phelps, while Gonzaga has been playing some decent ball of late. I'll contend that Gonzaga's tournament games in Las Vegas were more semi-home than neutral due to their traveling fan base. I'll be the first to claim I don't know how the NCAA handles ticket allotments, but I'm sure the Rose Garden will have their share of Bulldog fans. Which ultimately brings me to my point, any square who puts in as little effort as possible will come to this same conclusion. Gonzaga dominated in the WCC tourney and Akron really should be no different. I know my opinion of Gonzaga is higher than most, but I'm not sure how Akron even gets to 60. Maybe they'll get a couple of 3s to fall. Slight lean to the Zips.

#6 Arizona St. vs #11 Temple
Opening Line: ASU -5
Current Line: ASU -4.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: ASU 63-58
In the interest of transparency, I'll let everyone know I have a crush on Arizona St. Their first round tilt against Temple is a pass, I'm looking forward to their possible second round match against Syracuse. I don't have much for this game other than hoping ASU can win (not a jinx) without looking too impressive.

#3 Syracuse vs #14 Stephen F. Austin
Opening Line: Syracuse -14.5
Current Line: Syracuse -12
Pomeroy Projected Score: Syracuse 69-59
Syracuse is everyone's favorite team, that was the vibe I picked up from several random acquaintances on Saturday night during the Big East finals. That can be expected when you prevail in a 6OT marathon and then win your next game (thanks a bunch Mountaineers). Now they're playing a no-name in Stephen F. Austin who is best known for allowing Ben Woodside to score 60 points in mid-December. Another possible play in this game will be the under as SFA is quite good on the defensive end. If it's within sniffing distance of the 128 that Pomeroy has projected I'll have to definitely get down on that.

#7 Clemson vs #10 Michigan
Opening Line: Clemson -6
Current Line: Clemson -5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Clemson 74-69
Clemson's recent swoon makes them almost playable. I do have a certain bias against Michigan, which is odd because I like Jon Beilein's coaching style. Maybe, it's Michigan jacking up a bunch of 3s when they have no business doing so. I have a small lean towards Oliver Purnell, but rest assured I'll be on either one of these teams when Oklahoma comes calling.

#2 Oklahoma vs #15 Morgan St
Opening Line: Oklahoma -17.5
Current Line: Oklahoma -16.5
Pomeroy Projected Line: Oklahoma 77-62
Oklahoma = fade material, if I play Morgan St remains to be seen