Opening Line: Uconnn -21
Current Line: Uconn -20.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Uconn 87-62
Chattanooga has been quite good to me this year. The disparity in Pomeroy's score when compared to the line is substantial. It is likely a combination of their recent performance (1-6 ATS), the public coming to the realization that Jerome Dyson's injury is a killer and not winning a six overtime game. Regardless this game isn't worth taking.
#8 BYU vs #9 Texas A&M
Opening Line: BYU -2
Current Line: BYU -2
Pomeroy Projected Score: BYU 75-69
BYU clocks in as the 18th best team in the country, sporting a top 25 offense and defense according to Ken Pomeroy. While the oddsmakers haven't always looked highly upon BYU, they are starting to come around as Vegas Watch points out. I doubt the public thinks BYU is a top 20 team and in most instances thinks A&M > BYU. That's simply not the case, there is a definite strong lean on the Mormons.
#5 Purdue vs #12 Northern Iowa
Opening Line: Purdue -8.5
Current Line: Purdue -8
Pomeroy Projected Score: Purdue 67-59
It's entirely possibly that Purdue is a great deal better than what their record indicates due to the fact that Robbie Hummel sat out 5 games and was largely ineffective in a handful of others due to a fractured vertebrae. Given their Big 11 tourney run the public has taken notice of the Boilermakers in their first round game against Northern Iowa. UNI doesn't look too appealing at 8 so this one's a pass.
#4 Washington vs #13 Mississippi St
Opening Line: Washington -4.5
Current Line: Washington -5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Washington 80-72
The committee did Washington no favors by pitting them against Mississippi St. As from a gambling perspective a case could be made for Washington as an anti-pub favorite, but I'm not buying it. Washington was the regular season Pac 10 champions and are playing close to home in the Rose Garden. Pass.
#6 Marquette vs #11 Utah St.
Opening Line: Marquette -5.5
Current Line: Marquette -4.5
Pomeroy Projected Score: Marquette 75-69
You couldn't force me to pick a team in this game.
#3 Missouri vs #14 Cornell
Opening Line: Missouri -13
Current Line: Missouri -13
Pomeroy Projected Score: Missouri 81-67
Missouri came from mediocrity last year to become a legit top 15 team this year and win the Big 12 tournament. They have been nothing short of dominant at home this year, while less than stellar on the road falling behind big at Kansas St, Kansas and Texas A&M. In fact of any protected seed (seeds 1-4) Missouri has the largest home/road differential. Not a good omen come tournament time. I would be remiss if I didn't mention who has the largest home/road differential in the tournament. That team is Cornell, but they have a legit excuse as their point guard Louis Dale missed the first eight games of the season. That still doesn't explain a 15 point loss at Indiana or a 20 point drubbing at the hands of perennial power Princeton with their full compliment of players. Missouri and their pressing brand of basketball should ravage this group of unathletic rich white kids from Ithaca. Definite lean on poison ivy.
#7 Cal vs #10 Maryland
Opening Line: Cal pk
Current Line: Cal -1
Pomeroy Projected Line: Cal 74-71
Maryland is the name school from the ACC with wins over Michigan St., North Carolina and Wake Forest. Cal came from an underrated Pac 10 and although they have nice wins over Washington(2), Arizona St and USC none of those wins can match the three marquee victories that Maryland possesses. Plus, Cal is a grand total of four games over .500 in the past five years prior to this season. So who should be favored? Lean on the Golden Bears.
#2 Memphis vs #15 Cal St. Northridge
Opening Line: Memphis -18.5
Current Line: Memphis -19.5
Pomeroy Projected Line: Memphis 76-58
While this line appears to be short, it really isn't. Here are Pomeroy's projected spreads for the #1s and the rest of the #2s if they faced off against Northridge.
| Louisville | Pitt | UNC | Uconn | Oklahoma | Duke | Michigan St. |
| -16 | -17 | -19.5 | -16 | -12.5 | -15.5 | -13 |
Memphis crushed Houston and Tulsa on their home court en route to a C-USA tournament championship. Houston and Tulsa >> #15 seed, so shouldn't Memphis' domination continue? Well, that's what almost everyone thinks.
Almost assuredly I'll have a play on the Matadors.
