Week 14 Line Guesses

Week 13 Line Guess Results

I'm churning this out because of a 1am coffee run and general procrastination of other obligations. This week my partner in crime, Frank, could not partake in the festivities so I'll just give a few quick comments on this week's card. My average was a grotesque 2.47.

The main culprits were EMU/Crackon, Marshall/Minerpalooza, TT/Bay and UGA/GT. I thought Baylor was playing at home instead of in Arlington so that somewhat explains how I was 8.5 off, suppose I didn't properly factor in each team's most recent games enough. I couldn't care less about the MAC and C-USA shitfests. Surprised by the fav in Clean, Old Fashioned Hate (I owe many years of playing NCAA football for this useless piece of knowledge) opening at only a TD. Who do you think the pub will like in that primetime ABC game, the 10-1 team with a dynamic offense or the 6-5 squad coming off a home loss to Kentucky? Tough one. Only item of concern is the move to 7.5 but for now Pinny is staying at that number with high juice.

I don't see any play for Tuesday (Balls Deep St vs WMU) or Thursday (Tejas at A&M).

11/27
Louisville will get a look but Rutgers just lost to Syracuse so taking UL at +4.5 isn't as ugly for me.

3-7 Illinois looks like a classic lean against 10-0 Cincy, even better with Pike coming back.

Iron Bowl saw the line move from 12.5 to 10 so that will be woth monitoring.

Nebraska opened up lower than what I expected but they've shot up from 8 to 10, small lean on DIVISION I FOOTBALL.

West Vag as a short dog to top-10 Pitt is my kind of play.

I thought Chris Ault would be a play but I'm no fan of the line movement.

11/28
The Russell Wilson led faction of the Wolfpack is another play that gets me mildly aroused but much like Nevada, early money has gone against NC St (Greek opened at 4.5 now 6) not signifcant but worth monitoring) and I don't want to end up in a bodybag.

I hope Spurrier can #CockUp against Dabo.

Egg Bowl was a likely play before the season started and nothing has changed to shift my opinion of that.

OU -10 vs T. Boone Pickens? OKIE ST IS PLAYING FOR A BCS BOWL GAME!! Who are they trying to kid with that line?

I'm guessing Rizo might not be up to play the Sun Dicks? That's what the line is telling me.

BYU -7.5 vs Utah looks high to me, have to see how it develops during the week.

That's all I've got this week, as a general note my blog will remain relatively quiet until the semester is finished around mid-December. After which, things should pick up as my time frees up.

III

Cal +7+106 4x
Nebraska -16.5 EV 4x
Arizona +6 -110 4x

Part II

Syracuse +10 +101 4x

College Card 11/21 I

OU/TT U56.5 +103 4x
Kent St +11.5 -110 4x

Gotta Stay Positive

NCAAF
Danny Hawkins +18 -110 4x

NCAAB
tOSU +3 -110 2x
Rice +14.5 -110 +2x

NBA
Whorenets +8 -103 1x

Allll The Waaay Turrrnt Up

NCAAB
Western Carolina +25 -105 2x

NBA
Zards +4.5 -109 1x
Twolves +6 -103 1x

These plays are like the above song, I'll be sick after a short time of both.

11/17

UC Live In A Van Down By The Riverside +10 -111 2x

CFB Week 12 Line Guess Results

For this week I had an average of 1.9, Frank checked in at 3.64.

Sham: Opening line that stood out to me was Okie St -14.5 vs Colorado. Short and gross.

Am19psu: Colorado has improved throughout the year, at least judging by their lines, but yeah it's definitely short and going to be a losing wager on Thursday night.

I feel similarly about Northwestern, too. I'm sure no one will want to bet on 7-2 Wisky against the Cats.

S: Northwestern doesn't seem that ugly to me as they beat Iowa on the road as a 15-point dog and Illinois (not saying much) as a 6-point dog. Add to the fact that the line moved from 6.5 to 7.5 quick and that smells like a pass.

I see an old friend is only +8 at home against Rutgers.

19: Syracuse is the new Temple. Only one more week until we get to play Juice against Cincy, too.

So, I guess the books adjusted to the new reality of good Stanford. That line would have been Cal -7 at the beginning of October.

S: Cal will get a look this week just based off what Stanford has done over the last two weeks in throttling both Oregon and USC. Staying with the Pac 10 it appears that Arizona will be a play +6 at home against the Quack Attack.

19: Agree with both. I guess I should have factored losing Best into the Cal line, too.

Before we get too much farther, nothing seemed out of the ordinary to me with the small conference nonsense. I think we can safely stay within the BCS (or AQ, I guess they're calling it now) schools this week.

S: Agreed except for the possibility of Utah St at home against Boise St. I don't think I'll be on Memphis or any of the weekday MAC garbage this week.

19: We were both off on the Boise line pretty bad. I think they set that high enough that we can avoid it Friday night.

I can't wait to be in East Lansing this weekend with the line the books set for the PSU game.

S: Sparty could round into a play this week vs JoePa, too bad Michigan St came back again Purdue last week. What are you thoughts on Minny this week? They barely beat South Dakota St, got roughed up against the other 2 upper echelon Big 10 teams (tOSU and PSU) and are only +10 at Kinnick.

19: I think that Minny is the right side, though I'm not totally sure if they'll make it on the card. The public hasn't exactly been enthusiastic about Iowa in recent weeks.

It looks like there are couple of marginal SEC looks this week with Kentucky and Mississippi State. I guess all it took was Georgia to beat Auburn for people to like them and their crappy secondary again.

S: Marginal for sure and the same thing could be said for the Big 12 except there are several borderline plays which I should all pass but won't. I'm interested to see how Nebraska's numbers move throughout the week.

For the second straight week this card doesn't seem to have too many plays which is most likely a good thing.

19: Yeah, there just isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Maybe Baylor again, but it's not like aTm is in any way good.

Regarding Nebraska, is it bad that I am looking forward to betting them versus UT in the Dr. Pepper game? They're going to open up around a 10 pt dog or so?

S: I'll take that as a compliment. I think Nebraska will open as a +13 against Texas in the B12CG (assuming they beat K-St this week). It's also the best chance for chaos in the BCS if Nebraska can beat Texas and possibly open up the door for TCU to sneak into the BCS Championship Game. I know that would be my dream scenario. Final thoughts?

19: There would be a lot of hand wringing if Texas were to lose to Nebraska, especially if Cincy beats Pitt the same day. But, hey that'd be payback for 1996, right?

My final thought is: this card sucks and I'll probably be on no more than 4 or 5 games, especially since I'll have to put them in Friday morning. Anything to add?

S: James Brown and John Mackovic can go die.

19: Seems like a good note to end on. See you next week.

NFL Week 10

Panthers +2 -110 3x
Redskins +4 EV 3x

NBA Garbage

Everybody Beat The Wiz -3.5 EV 1x
Breastcats +2.5 +105 1x

Not Sure How I Have Seven Plays

Duke +12 +122 4x
Ole Miss -4.5 -110 4x
UCF +4.5 -106 4x
Virginia +4 +108 4x
UNC +4 -110 4x
TCU -20 +102 4x
Troy +14.5 -110 4x

NE Iowa Is Quite Scenic

NCAAF
Akron +5.5 -101 4x

NFL
Redskins +4 EV 3x

NCAAB
Morehead St +20.5 -136 2x
Wofford +17 -109 2x
UL Monroe +17 -113 2x
Idaho +11 -108 2x
Virgil & Mary +23.5 -101 2x

Tenny +500 to win SEC East, risking 3x

11/11

NBA
Knicks +5.5 +105 1x
Timberpups +8 +104 1x
Hornets +6.5 +101 1x
Bobcats ML +175 1x

NHL
Mighty Ducks +125 1x

Bleh.

Maine Red Claws +3.5 -107 1x
King Thunda U198.5 +106 1x

MNF Week 9

Broncos +2.5 +118 3x
Pit/Den U41 +101 3x

NBA TV Special

6ers +2.5 -110 1x

It'll Be 0-4, Shouldn't Even Watch

NCAAF
SJSU +13.5 +104 4x

NFL
Dal/Phi U50 -113 3x

NBA
GS -3 +102 1x
NO +6.5 +105 1x

One For The Pros

Washington Redstitz +10 -110 3x

Miscellaneous 2

Utah -9 2H -109 1x

Miscellaneous

Adding
Nebraska +7 -110 2x, for a total of 6x

NBA
Mavs -7.5 -103 1x

College Card

Stanford +7 -101 6x
Syracuse +21 +103 4x
Tulsa +1.5 +104 4x
Vag +13.5 +108 4x
Clemson -9.5 -102 4x
Colorado +4 -110 4x
Wake +17 -110 4x
Nebraska +7 -110 4x
UCF/Tex U49 -110 4x

It's Like I'm Not Even Trying

NCAAF
Boise/LT U51.5 +101 4x

NBA
Bobcats +2.5 -106 1x
Raptors +5 -103 1x

NHL
Islanders +142 1x

Leaning towards a pass of La Tech at this moment.

Wheat In The Bin?

SBET Prospective NBA Lines for 11/6, all plays are 1x -110 unless noted otherwise
Merlin +5.5 -115 at Indy
I Call MMMMagic -10.5 vs Detroit
6ers -6 vs NJ

11/7
Bulls -4.5 vs Charlotte
Clippers pk vs Memphis

11/8
OKC +8 vs Orlando
Wizards +5.5 vs Phoenix 2x (I'll most likely put a unit on Phoenix +whatever)

Plays were posted earlier here. The plan is to identify lines at SBET that I believe are off from what the lines actually will be released as and either play that side or if it's public, shoot for a middle.

My goal (when additonal funds become available) will be to place 2x on the SBET lines (that are incorrect) and 1x at MB so that way, I either win or lose (most likely) my bet for 1x or I hit my middle and profit 3x.

I'm presently undecided on what, if anything, I'll do with tonight's options. For games that I haven't locked in I like Toronto, Charlotte and Memphis.

Thursday Pucks

Eat Thunder Crap Lightening +146 1x
LA Queens -114 1x

Fade For Profit

Craptors -8.5 +111 1x
MMMMagic -8 -104 1x
Wiz -2.5 +107 1x
Nyets +9 +103 1x
Sprockets +1.5 +107 1x
Hornets -4.5 +105 1x
Queens +5 +104 1x

I'm Not Sure If You Heard, New Orleans Averages Over 40 Points Per Game

NFL
Atl/NO U55 +105 3x

55 points for the game? Try first half.

NBA
Knicks +3 EV 1x
Clippers -8 +109 1x

I wasn't initially going to play LAC but after finding out they're 0-4 and favored by 8 (albeit against no powerhouse) I felt like it was worthy of a play.

This Is Going To Hurt

Ravens -3.5 -102 3x
Derek Anderson +14 -110 3x
Ryan Fitzpatrick +3.5 -106 3x
Packers -3 -110 3x
Jamarcus Russell +17 -110 3x
Vince Young -3 +104 3x
Jake Delhomme +10 -105 3x