Monday, November 16, 2009

CFB Week 12 Line Guess Results

For this week I had an average of 1.9, Frank checked in at 3.64.

Sham
: Opening line that stood out to me was Okie St -14.5 vs Colorado. Short and gross.

Am19psu: Colorado has improved throughout the year, at least judging by their lines, but yeah it's definitely short and going to be a losing wager on Thursday night.

I feel similarly about Northwestern, too. I'm sure no one will want to bet on 7-2 Wisky against the Cats.

S: Northwestern doesn't seem that ugly to me as they beat Iowa on the road as a 15-point dog and Illinois (not saying much) as a 6-point dog. Add to the fact that the line moved from 6.5 to 7.5 quick and that smells like a pass.

I see an old friend is only +8 at home against Rutgers.

19: Syracuse is the new Temple. Only one more week until we get to play Juice against Cincy, too.

So, I guess the books adjusted to the new reality of good Stanford. That line would have been Cal -7 at the beginning of October.

S: Cal will get a look this week just based off what Stanford has done over the last two weeks in throttling both Oregon and USC. Staying with the Pac 10 it appears that Arizona will be a play +6 at home against the Quack Attack.

19: Agree with both. I guess I should have factored losing Best into the Cal line, too.

Before we get too much farther, nothing seemed out of the ordinary to me with the small conference nonsense. I think we can safely stay within the BCS (or AQ, I guess they're calling it now) schools this week.

S: Agreed except for the possibility of Utah St at home against Boise St. I don't think I'll be on Memphis or any of the weekday MAC garbage this week.

19: We were both off on the Boise line pretty bad. I think they set that high enough that we can avoid it Friday night.

I can't wait to be in East Lansing this weekend with the line the books set for the PSU game.

S: Sparty could round into a play this week vs JoePa, too bad Michigan St came back again Purdue last week. What are you thoughts on Minny this week? They barely beat South Dakota St, got roughed up against the other 2 upper echelon Big 10 teams (tOSU and PSU) and are only +10 at Kinnick.

19: I think that Minny is the right side, though I'm not totally sure if they'll make it on the card. The public hasn't exactly been enthusiastic about Iowa in recent weeks.

It looks like there are couple of marginal SEC looks this week with Kentucky and Mississippi State. I guess all it took was Georgia to beat Auburn for people to like them and their crappy secondary again.

S: Marginal for sure and the same thing could be said for the Big 12 except there are several borderline plays which I should all pass but won't. I'm interested to see how Nebraska's numbers move throughout the week.

For the second straight week this card doesn't seem to have too many plays which is most likely a good thing.

19: Yeah, there just isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Maybe Baylor again, but it's not like aTm is in any way good.

Regarding Nebraska, is it bad that I am looking forward to betting them versus UT in the Dr. Pepper game? They're going to open up around a 10 pt dog or so?

S: I'll take that as a compliment. I think Nebraska will open as a +13 against Texas in the B12CG (assuming they beat K-St this week). It's also the best chance for chaos in the BCS if Nebraska can beat Texas and possibly open up the door for TCU to sneak into the BCS Championship Game. I know that would be my dream scenario. Final thoughts?

19: There would be a lot of hand wringing if Texas were to lose to Nebraska, especially if Cincy beats Pitt the same day. But, hey that'd be payback for 1996, right?

My final thought is: this card sucks and I'll probably be on no more than 4 or 5 games, especially since I'll have to put them in Friday morning. Anything to add?

S: James Brown and John Mackovic can go die.

19: Seems like a good note to end on. See you next week.