Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Late Developing
Just got home, I like this much better than the side and it will distract me nicely while I attempt to study and later begin drinking.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
Gotta Play Something, Right?
Min/Det O9 -106 1x
I literally spent 2 minutes making these picks, couldn't help myself with Hochevar even with the Yankees sitting their studs.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Friday, September 25, 2009
The Wolfpack, They Are The Strongest Force In College Football, Bar None!
Red & Black +7 +106 4x
The only chance this covers is if Blaine Gabbert swerves the Missouri football program, decks Danario Alexander and tears off his jersey to reveal a Wolfpack one as Gary Pinkel yells, "you're a dead man!"
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Monday, September 21, 2009
Week 4 CFB Lines of Note
South Carolina +3 Ole Miss
automatic play
Nevada +7.5 Missouri
35-0 beatdown by Notre Dame followed by an uninspired loss at Colorado St, yeah that number looks right.
Tennessee -21 Ohio
Kansas -13.5 Southern Miss
Georgia -12.5 Arizona St
Oregon +7 Cal
This line caught me off guard, doubt I play Cal but it stood out immediately.
Florida St -14 USF
NC St +1 Pittsburgh
Straight fade of my brother-in-law, who has Pitt as his "Stone Cold Lock of the Week", last week he had Boise St.
Stanford -7 Washington
Penn St -10 Iowa
Oregon St +2 Arizona
Two Pac 10 road chalk leans, such a square.
On a (rare) homer front last week let me point out that ULM opened up +26 at LSU, this week ULM opened +26.5 at Nebraska. All this implies is that LSU isn't as good as their #7 ranking (not shocking) and Nebraska is better than their #25 ranking. This is pure conjecture but I believe Nebraska will open up as a slight fav in Columbia October 8th.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
NFL Week 2
Texans +7 -103 3x
Lions +10 -105 3x
Eagles +1 +113 3x
NO/Phi U47 -110 3x
Jags -3 -102 3x
Chargers -2.5 -105 3x
Bears +3 -110 3x
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
"You Need To Smile More"
NYM/Atl O8 -104 1x
TB/Bal U9.5 EV 1x
Passing CWS/Sea O & Ms.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Initial NFL Week 2 Leans
NFL Week 1 3-6 -7.424x
Nice to see I'm picking up where I left off when it comes to the National Football League. Home team listed first, leans in bold
Chiefs -3 Raiders
I think I can manage to sit this one out
Titans -6.5 Texans
Houston was less than stellar in week one. Tennessee played Pittsburgh tough to kickoff NFL action. Line opened at 7 and dropped to 6.5, good sign.
Jets -3.5 Patriots
Line opened at NE -6.5 and has plummeted 3 points, any value that existed when the line was first released is gone, pass.
Packers -9 Bengals
Green Bay is fresh off a thrilling win over Chicago on Sunday night, while the replay of Cincinnati’s loss has been shown repeatedly. Lean Bungles.
Lions +9.5 Vikings
No need for an explanation.
Eagles -1 Saints
The smallest of leans to Philly on this game.
Falcons -6 Panthers
Like Carolina in this matchup, of course after Delhomme throws his third pick in the 2nd quarter I’ll be wishing I passed.
Redskins -9.5 Rams
St. Louis was shellacked 28-0 by Seattle. Washington should be able to do likewise.
Jaguars -3 Cardinals
I want to play Jacksonville in this matchup, badly. Never a good sign.
49ers -1.5 Seahawks
San Fran scored an impressive (not so much) win over last year’s Super Bowl runner-up while Seattle dominated the hapless Rams. Pass.
Bills -5 Bucs
Not interested.
Broncos -3 Browns
See above
Chargers -3.5 Ravens
Oakland was whipping San Diego up front prior to losing two offensive lineman. An uneasy lean to San Diego.
Bears +3 Steelers
Lean to Chicago, I guess.
Cowboys -3 Giants
I’ll gladly pass, I don’t care what the consensus numbers say.
Dolphins +3 Colts
Lean Miami though this line doesn’t particularly excite me.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Monday Night
Hou/Cin O7.5 +105 1x
Marlins +103 1x
As +206 1x
Possibly Oakland later, depends how much I want to lose tonight.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Week 3 CFB LoN
YTD 9-6 +11.399x
A 3-1 nightcap saved my ass from what could have been a horrific week two, but I came out of it more or less unscathed. Who knows what I would have placed for the 11am games if I had not blacked out the night before.
*Note to self: When I'm determined to get hammered, it would behoove me eat more than a pop tart and a 6" sub sandwich.
Oh yeah, fuck Jim Harbaugh.
Home team first, leans in bold
Fresno +7.5 Boise St
Michigan -22 Eastern Michigan
Syracuse +4 Northwestern
Clemson -7 Boston College
Western Michigan -17 Miami(OH)
Akron -4 Indiana
Oregon -4 Utah
Washington +21 USC
Baylor -10 Uconn
BYU -7 Florida St
Arkansas pk Georgia
Oregon St -1.5 Cincinnati
No lean in this one, but I found the line interesting.
SMU -7 AT Washington State
This must be the same Wazzu squad from last year for SMU to be a TD fav on the road.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Feeling Slightly Better
Ruston +7.5 -108 4x
Surfing Pelicans -109 +18.5 4x
These games will change that in a hurry.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Hopefully, Today Goes Better
Indians +123
Royals +153
Nats +136
Mets EV
Oak/CWS O9.5 +101
Sea/LAA O7.5 +112
Monday, September 7, 2009
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Week 2 CFB Lines of Note
Week 1 went about as well as I could have imagined, keeping plays fairly tight. The one problem I do have is having to watch the "Pelican" for the second straight week. I can't fathom a situation where I won't be on the Surfing Pelicans. Last year Virginia, Miami(OH), New Sexico and WKU would have been automatic, but just because a team sucks doesn't mean I need to get in a rush to back them. I've got the whole year ahead of me. Also, there will most likely be plays I have on Saturday that are not on my initial list but there should be a better reason than a low percentage of backers on a few consensus sites.
Lines for week 2 are out here. Home team listed first, leans in bold
Ga Tech -4.5 Clemson
WV -6.5 ECU
Penn St -28 Syracuse
Tulane +18 BYU
Navy -7.5 La Tech
Virginia +11.5 TCU
UTEP +11 Kansas
OK St -15 Houston
Boise St -36 Miami(OH)
tOSU +5 USC
New Mexico +17.5 Tulsa
SJSU +13.5 Utah
Nebraska -23.5 Arky St
WKU +24 USF
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Friday, September 4, 2009
Greatness Will Be Rushed Tonight
Os +123
Tex/Bal O9.5 +115
Tigers +112
Royals +174
Nats +114
Astros +122
Phi/Hou O7.5 +101
Tulame +14 -101 4x
Thursday, September 3, 2009
College Football Introduction
I've watched this video close to 30 times since the end of last season. Besides striving to be a degenerate my other life goal is to join the BDU.
Standard college football plays (sides and totals) will be 4x (or 4%), while games I dub to have more importance will be 6x (or 6%). Last year I went 17-7 on bigger plays, which is something I wasn't even aware of until 5 minutes ago. All plays listed will be standard plays unless I note otherwise.
Most plays listed at -110 are placed through a local when his line is better than what I can get online (determined by this useful tool). Last year in college football I went 34-42-1 through my local. Bets placed online were 81-61-1. This is fascinating because "Bruf" rarely makes line changes, so I only go through him when money comes in on the anti-public side and either lowers the line for a dog or raises it up for a fav. I don't believe any significant conclusions can be drawn from this data over the course of one year. This might be a statistical blip, but it is a development I'll be monitoring.
2 standards for tonight
Utah St. +22 -110
North Texas +17.5 -110
I'm not going to lie, North Texas should be a pass but I can't help myself.
Good luck on the 09-10 season.