Worst Weekend Ever

Not for what I lost, but for what could have won. I am sick. Here's a loser

Bears +3 +105 (1)

I'm sure Neckbeard will find a way to fuck this up, no doubt in my mind.

NFL Plays

Yesterday was the most disappointing week I've had in college football. I came out with a minimal profit, while most of the games that I was considering ended up winning. Here are some surefire losers for today's NFL slate

Chiefs +11 -110 (1.5)
Vikings +3 +105 (1)
Bucs PK -110 (1)
Raiders +8.5 -110 (1.5)
Was/Dal U46 +101 (1)

Looking hard at Chicago tonight

Saturday Night

UGA -6.5 EV (1)
Idaho +11 +108 (1)

Still loooking at Nevada

CFB Week 5

Indiana +9 -110 (1)
Houston +11 -110 (1)
Tennessee +6.5 +101 (1.5)
Michigan +6 -110 (1)
Wyoming +3 -101 (1)
TCU +18.5 +101 (1)
Kent St +21 +107 (1)
FSU -6 +105 (1)

I'll have my picks on the night games up later in the day

NFL Leans

Den -10 KC
I wonder how many units the Chiefs will cost me this year, 5...10? One thing I am thankful for is that Tyler Thigpen won't be starting this week.

CIN -3.5 Cle
Clusterf*ck = Pass

JAX -7 Hou
I'm waiting for a time to back Houston, this might be the week.

NYJ -1.5 Arz
Lean towards the Jets, but most likely a no play.

NO -5.5 Sf
I don't like betting on or against my favorite teams unless it's a slam dunk, this is not the case.

CAR -6.5 Atl
Slight lean towards the Panthers, it's amazing how a rookie QB can look so good at home against an awful team, but so bad on the road against a decent team. Who'd a thunk it?

TEN -3 Min
Tennessee is the most physical team in the league! The Vikings known for their finesse play, have already pissed themselves. Likely a play on the Vikes.

TB -1 Gb
The line opened at TB -3, who does Vegas want you to take?

Buf -8 STL
I still don't think people know how bad St. Louis really is, looking at the under.

Sd -7.5 OAK
Oakland has looked fiesty in their last two games, San Diego beat down the Jets on Monday Night. Leaning heavily on Al Davis

DAL -11 Was
Passing the side, but the under is definitely worth a look.

Phi -3 CHI
Liking the Bears quite a bit in this matchup, I'll see how things develop.

PIT -5 Bal
I'm thinking this one is a pass

CFB Leans Week 5

It's been a hectic week and haven't had much time to do "research". So a day late here are my college leans...

Indiana +8.5
The loss to Ball St last week + Sparty's last two performances were not as good as the score would indicate. Plus Ball St gashed Indiana for 224 rushing yards last week, Ringer will have that amount at the half.

Kent St +17
Ball St just beat a team from a power conference, so the Golden Showers should be no problem. Also how will Ball St react after losing Dante Love?

Memphis +2
I have no justification other than when the line was originally set Memphis was favored. I don't think the oddsmakers made a mistake.

Akron +11
I'm lukewarm on this pick, we'll see what happens in the next 24 hours

Houston +10.5
ECU will bounce back, right?

ND -1
Notre Dame sucks, Purdue is good, appearantly

Tennessee +6.5
This is one of my favorite plays this week. The reasons for backing Tennesse should be obvious I'll see if I can contain myself when deciding how much to bet.

Michigan +6
I have no idea why people are standing in line waiting to back Allen Everidge on the road as a fav

Florida St -5.5
This one is comical. Colorado beats an overrated West Virginia team led by an overmatched, but pleasant Bill Stewart. FSU looks like complete ass on national tv against Wake. FSU will be lucky to even score six points this weekend.

Arkansas +27
I have nothing for this game, most likely a pass unless I decide I want to lose another unit this weekend.

Wyoming +3
Where are all the people early in the year who were backing Wyoming at home against an also-ran from the MAC?

North Texas +17
The Mean Green defense has looked utterly pathetic all year, I see no reason for this to change against Rice. In addition, it doesn't feel right going against a team that lost by 42 their last time out.

TCU +18
Stoops will likely be an asshole in this game

Georgia -6
This game is bizarre. I feel dirty even thinking about backing the preseason #1 at home sporting a 3-0 record, but it's not up to me. It's up to the public

Idaho +11.5
The Vandals laid claim to being the worst to in the FBS last week, I'll be looking at them more seriously as the year progresses

Nevada +4
UNLV is big-time after beating ASU and ISU. Nevada has not looked so good against Texas Tech(should have fucking covered) or Missouri.

Thursday Nighter

USC/Oregon St U52.5 -101 (1)

I am passing on Oregon St and SMU. There will be plenty of opportunities this weekend on which to place a wager and lose horribly.

Monday Night Football

I thought I had something better to do than agonize over the Monday Nighter, appearantly not.

SD -9 +108 (1)
SD/Bretts U45 +112 (1)

Sunday Night Football

GB +3 +106 (1)
GB/Dal U51.5 -110 (1)

Not looking forward to this 2-unit loss to end the night

NFL Week 3

Chiefs +6.5 -102 (1)
Bucs +3 +110 (1)
Vikings -3 -106 (1)
Ravens -2 -110 (1)

No chance

Saturday Night

LSU/Aub O37 +105 (1)
Toledo +7 -110 (1)
Arizona St +7 -110 (1)

CFB Week 4

Temple +29 -102 (1)
Ole Miss -6.5 -110 (1)
Wyoming +29 -110 (1)
Arkansas +8.5 +103 (1)
Buffalo +35 -110 (1)
Army +10 -104 (1)

I'm not in love with any of these plays, compared to last week this card blows. I can't stand the Arkansas and Army picks. I'll be back with a few more plays for the night games.

Passes were Pitt, Air Force, Tennessee, New Mexico, UL-Monroe and FIU

EDIT - Adding Pitt ML -108 (1)
This is a sure loser

NFL Leans

ATL -6 kc
Tyler Thigpen suited up last week for the Chiefs and I don't know if one could look any worse than he did. Words cannot describe how pathetic Thigpen was against the Raiders. I also have no words to describe why I will be backing him this Sunday

BUF -9.5 oak
Buffalo overvalued, Raiders=Raiders, Leaning heavily on Al Davis this week

TEN -4.5 hou
Tennessee has won and covered their first two games and there has been talk of them being a Super Bowl darkhorse. Houston looked like ass in their opener against the Steelers then has a bye week, who looks like the play?

NYG -13 cin
Obvious lean to the Bengals, but this play might get cut as I tighten up my card for Sunday

WAS -3 arz
pass

NE -12.5 mia
I honestly have no idea

CHI -3 tb
Who thought people would flock to back Neckbeard? Tampa is getting serious consideration.

MIN -3.5 car
Carolina beat San Diego and Chicago without Steve Smith, now they get the winless Vikings who will be dusting off Gus Frerotte. Public is backing a dog yet the line moved a half-point to the Vikings. I wonder what I should do?

SEA -10 stl
Seattle has sucked this year, so has St. Louis. It appears as if someone wants you to take the Rams in this case.

SF -4 det
Passing this clusterfuck

DEN -5.5 no
I can pass on two overvalued teams even if one is getting pounded

PHI -3.5 pit
Did not think I would be leaning Pittsburgh in this game before the year started

IND -5.5 jax
Both teams have struggled, both teams are passes

BAL -2 cle
Baltimore is looking like an auto-play

dal -3 GB
Will most likely be on the Packers

SD -9 nyj
Slight lean towards the Chargers, but most likely a pass

No play in the Uconn-Baylor cluster, I will have my morning and afternoon college plays posted around 9:30am.

CFB Leans Week 4

I don't like this card near as much as the last two weeks. That could be good(4-9 in wk 2) or bad(8-3 last week). The only game that is a definite play come Saturday is Toledo. There are other games where I am leaning heavily (Temple, Arkansas, Buffalo) but nothing is set in stone. Onto the leans...

Temple +28.5: This is more a fade of Penn St than anything else

Ole Miss -7: Vandy is getting way too much love right now. One nationally televised upset win over South Carolina coupled with a 3-0 ATS will turn you public.

Wyoming +28.5: If BYU can beat UCLA 59-0, what will they do against the Cowboys?

Auburn +2.5: The high-octane basketball on grass game that Auburn played against Sly Croom, is stuck in the minds of all those smart bettors who took Auburn. The O38 will get a look as well.

Arkansas +9.5: Arkansas has been 4 points better than their opponents this year, Western Illinois and UL-Monroe. In both of those games the Razorbacks were down double-digits in the 4th. As ugly as Arkansas has looked this year, I'm not disgusted by this play (never a good sign).

Pittsburgh -1: Iowa is a public dog, Pitt hasn't looked good this year. How will Kirk Ferentz's criminals look away from Kinnick?

New Mexico +10: No way New Mexico hangs with Tulsa, just like there was no way NM would hang with Arizona

Air Force +8: I don't think Air Force got the memo that the forward pass is legal.

Army +10: I really don't want to get involved in this clusterfuck, but I think my hand will be forced.

NC St +7.5: Does the fading of ECU continue? I have no idea, the Wolfpack are gruesome enough to play though.

Buffalo +34: Did you know Chase Daniel has more TD passes than incompletions in his last two games? I, honestly, had no idea.

Toledo +7.5: Fresno usually bounces back after a disappointing non-conference loss, right?

Tennessee +7.5: I really want to stay away from this game

Arizona St +7: ASU really hasn't looked good against top-flight competition, that probably won't change this week.

FIU +28.5: KU beat 'em by 30, USF can surely do the same, no?

UL-Monroe +6: Tulane almost beat ECU, who is UL-Monroe?

For tonight's WVU-Colorado game there will be no play.

Wednesday Night Football?

UL +3.5 +117 (1)
UL ML +175 (1)

This play really has no chance whatsoever, consider these facts

Kansas State comes rolling into town with the 3rd most efficient passer in the NCAA in Josh "My coach said imma be the number 1 pick in the NFL Draft" Freeman

Louisville could only put up 2 points against Kentucky in their nationally televised rivalry game

Kansas State has taken down perennial powers North Texas and Montana St

Louisville lost to Kentucky and beat some crappy team (nowhere near as good as North Texas or Montana St)

Did I mention how truly horrible Louisville looked against Kentucky in their nationally televised game and how dominant K-St looked at home against stiff competition?

I might as well be burning my money instead of wagering on the Cardinals

Sunday Night Football

I have no idea how this will cover tonight

Browns +6 +101 (1)

A Late Afternoon Play That Will Lose

Tampa -7 -109 (1)

NFL Week 2 Plays

Redskins -1 +101 (1.5)
Vikings ML +113 (1)

Passing Lions, Rams and Raiders

No Way These Come In

New Mexico +10.5 -102 (1)
Ohio St/USC U44 +111 (1)

Afternoon Disgust

Guaranteed losers

South Carolina +7.5 EV (1)
VT -7 -108 (2)
BYU -8 -110 (1)
Tulane +13 -110 (1)
ND +2 -110 (1)

AM Losers

The hits keep coming, games have to start breaking my way but things have been about as shitty as possible

Maryland +14.5 -110 (1.5)
FAU +17 +109 (1)
UL-Laughing at this pick +25.5 -106 (1)

Friday Night Football

USF -3.5 EV (1.5)

This play does not totally disgust me, in fact I like it quite a bit.

Because I'd Rather Not Read My Economics Book.....

Here are my NFL leans

KC -4 oak
Oakland looked shitty on MNF, can't argue that fact. For that reason and KC hanging tough with a Brady-less Patriot squad the Chiefs are getting pounded. I'll take the hapless Raiders and the points.

CINCY -1 ten
Vince Young is out for the Titans and that might actually help them, honestly I have no idea in this game. Titans seem like the easy pick, but I do not bet anything that is easy.

indy -2 MIN
I like the Vikes and the points in this one, no shame in losing on the road to a solid GB team. That and the public is pounding the Colts, so that made it easier.

no -1 WAS
Maybe it's because I didn't see the Redskins play last Thursday, but why the orgy on Nawlins? I'll go with the Washington Redstits (no that's not a typo).

gb -3 DET
This line is disgusting, just god awful. It's either the Lions or no play, probably no play. I'm sure it's because I'm influenced by FO and I still view the Packers as damn near the same team as last year(because they are sans Favre), while downgrading the Lions, who look to be stellar this year.

CAR -3 chi
Battle of teams with surprising week 1 wins, I'll gladly stay away from both thank you.

nyg -9 STL
Rams should be playing in FBS against the Trojans to see who will be the NFL's 32nd team. Leaning Rams....ugh

JAX -5 buf
This would be a great spot to back the Jaguars, but I hate the fact that their missing a big chunk of their offensive line. They still might be a play, but right now it's a pass

TB -7 atl
Atlanta beat up on Detroit at home, TB lost a close one @ New Orleans. Tampa will be without Garcia and Brooks might be out as well. Public likes Atlanta. I like Tampa

SEA -6.5 sf
Seattle must have a plague on their WRs, this game could go either way and that makes it a pass.

ARZ -6 mia
I lean Cardinals, but probably a no play

NYJ -1 ne
Who thought this would be the line a week ago. I thought for a bit that the Pats might be a play, they will not and neither will the Jets

HOU -3.5 bal
I like Houston at this spot, as they were not as bad as they played last week. I have a crush on both these teams and will likely stay away.

sd -1 DEN
Denver beats down on Oakland, San Diego loses at the gun to a previously underrated Carolina squad. If I had to pick I'd be laying that point.

pit -6 CLE
The thought of backing Cleveland makes me sick, If I can bring myself to it I'll be on the Browns

DAL -6.5 phi
Too much going on with this play and what before looked like a slam dunk on the Eagles is looking like a pass, I'll see what develops.

CFB Leans that will lose money

USF - had to go to OT with UCF, ha! they suck (nevermind USF outgained UCF 2-1 in total yards and UCF was much more motivated than USF). Kansas meanwhile has shown its muscle against FIU and La Tech.

Maryland - Cal destroyed a stellar Wazzu squad coupled with Maryland looking quite formidable against the powerhouses that are Delaware and Middle Tennessee

FAU - Sun Belt sucks

UL-Laf - above

Nevada - I can't imagine this loss being any more painful than last week against Tech

Tulane - fading ECU after two high profile wins

BYU - people talking themselves into UCLA after losing money on them, hell Washington should have won that game!

Purdue - Oregon has rolled twice at home, playing on the road should be no different, Big 10 sucks too.

Spurrier - UGA only laying 7?, A GIFT FROM VEGAS

Syracuse - The Orange really are putrid

Notre Dame - Sagebrush from Covers puts it nicely, "Wouldn't Michigan slaughter Cal-Poly? Ok, let's see...Cal-Poly somehow beats San Diego State...then Notre Dame struggles and barely beats SD St...so my question is how the hell will the fighting irish hang with Michigan...? Don't see it happening!!!"

Va Tech - Line is set up for action on the Ramblin' Wreck

Ohio St - Wells is now doubtful, so the Buckeyes' chances of winning just went from 5% to 0.0001%

Ohio St/USC U45

New Mexico - home games against Idaho and Toledo have shown how superior Arizona is to New Mexico who is 0-2 on the year

Monday Night Football

Packers -2 -105 (1)
Packers -3 +128 (.5)

Offseason hype on Minnesota + Packers losing Farve, coupled with shoddy preseason play = this play

NFL Futures

Cleveland U8 EV (.25)
GB O8 -125 (.5)
Oakland U6.5 -135 (.55)
Detroit U6.5 -105 (.5)
Dallas U10.5 +120 (.5)
Baltimore to win AFC North +805 risking (1)

Not a whole lot behind these plays, they are PFP inspired

NFL Week 1

Yesterday night will live in infamy for quite some time. Memphis/Rice and Nevada/Texas Tech will go down as all-timers. It was a disgusting crock of shit. My other losers were just a straight kick in the balls, an all-around solid night for square logic. I guess I need to start looking at stats and trends to justify my plays and not betting on overinflated lines.

Joe Flacco +1 +116 (1)
Texans +6.5 +108 (1)
Buccaneers +3.5 -110 (1)

Passes: Matty Ryan

CFB Week 2

SJSU +28 -110 (1.5)

UTEP +28 -110 (1.5)

Ohio St/Ohio U46.5 -103 (.5)
Pub fade

Duke +6 -103 (1)
Northwestern is only laying 6 to Duke, Duke sucks

UCF +14 -110 (1)
It wouldn't surprise me if my future bet was shot in week 2

Memphis -3 -110 (1)
Memphis - blowout loss + Rice - blowout win over a shitty SMU squad on national tv = this play

North Texas +21.5 -103 (1)
Tulsa will gain 834 yards today against this porous d, I guess Tulsa has the steel curtain on their side.

Washington St +13.5 +103 (1)
This will likely be as painful as last week's game

Nevada -10.5 -107 (1)
Pumpfest on the Texas Tech Pirates

Marshall +21.5 -110 (1)
I cannot even name one Marshall player, which is suprising considering all the game film I've been watching

New Mexico +3 -110 (1)
No way Texas A&M loses two straight in non-conference

Louisiana Tech +21.5 -110 (1)
Pub fade

Toledo +24 -110 (1)
Arizona beat Idaho by 70 last week, surely 25 against Toledo is not too much to ask for

Passes - EMU, Oregon St, Minnesota, Tulane, San Diego St

Nebraska is ONLY -26.5!?

Let me lay it down for everyone who reads this site (maybe 1 person besides me), there is a guy I know who absolutely looks down upon people who gamble. Let's call him Waldo. Waldo thinks it is a complete waste of money. Waldo saw my copy of Pro Football Prospectus and kept saying, "stupid" under his breath because he thought it was a gambling book (it kinda is for win totals, but he is oblivious to that fact) never mind the fact that it is the most informative book you can read on the NFL. It was "stupid".

So imagine my shock when I heard that Waldo wanted to drop some cash on the local university. He wants to do what now? Mr. Moral Superiority wants to lower himself to the dregs of society? This line has enticed him so much that he wants to come down from his soapbox and put down his first wager on Nebraska -26.5. His square thinking is as follows Nebraska is 23 points better than Western Michigan. Western Michigan is at least a TD better than San Jose St. Thus Nebraska should cover their spread against SJSU.

Waldo is right about one thing, for him gambling will be a complete waste of money.

Who Needs Self-Control?

I like way too many games this weekend and it's guaranteed to end badly, here are the leans

NCAAF
EMU +21.5
Marshall +21.5
SJSU +27
Oregon St +16.5
NM +3
Wazzu +13.5
Duke +6.5
Tulane +30
No. Ill +6
UCF +14.5
La Tech +21
North Tejas +22
Minnesota +6
Memphis -3.5
Nevada +10
Toledo +22.5
UTEP +26.5

UTEP is my favorite play right now, followed by SJSU, UCF and Nevada

NFL
Joe Flacco +1
Texans +6.5
Falcons +3
Oh My God they don't have Farve -2.5
Carolina +9.5

I'll probably end up with only a couple plays for NFL week 1, with Flacco and Texans loooking like definite plays.

Labor Day Special Part II

UCLA +7.5 EV (1)

This has no chance of covering

EDIT- bought back, so now if UCLA wins I'm +.237 and if the Fightin' Fulmers win I push. This piece of mind is definitely worth it.

Labor Day Special Part I

Rutgers -3.5 +101 (1)

I noticed this play mid-week when everyone was pumping Fresno and counting out Rutgers because Ray Rice is gone.

There will definitely be a play for tonight's game....I'm sick just thinking about it, but I'm gonna gamble that the books want some of their money back after this weekend was filled with square winners.